A daily, rule-based rotation around Nasdaq tech exposure (QQQ) with hedges (PSQ, UVXY, Treasuries) to guard against downturns; uses momentum/RSI signals and regime checks (overbought/oversold SPY) to switch between growth and defense.

Plain-language description of how it works: - The strategy watches a few main building blocks: a tech-focused ETF (QQQ), its inverse (PSQ), a broad-market proxy (SPY), and several hedges tied to bonds and volatility (TLT, TMV, TMF, IEF, BIL, UVXY). It also uses dollar-based hedges and currency proxies (UUP) and bear-market proxies like SPXU. The goal is to ride upswings in equities when conditions look good, while having ready-made hedges to limit losses when risk rises. - It starts by checking if the S&P 500 (SPY) looks overbought. If it does and Nasdaq (QQQ) is showing relative strength, the system leans toward hedging or reducing long risk and, in some cases, adds volatility exposure (UVXY) or inverse Nasdaq exposure (PSQ). This is the “Overbought S&P” scenario: sell rallies and buy protection. - If the S&P looks extremely oversold, the model shifts toward risk-on behavior. It prioritizes buying Nasdaq-related exposure (QQQ or TQQQ in some cases) and uses momentum or price-action screens to pick the best Nasdaq option. The logic is: when the market is beaten down but momentum shows improvement, lean into equities again. - There are explicit bear-market defense stacks that kick in during regimes like high inflation or rising rates. Those stacks favor hedges (PSQ, UVXY, TMV, TMF) and defensive bonds (TLT, IEF, BIL) to dampen downturns, sometimes at the cost of reduced upside during rallies. - The framework uses a “top/bottom” selection process among assets, ranking candidates by momentum, relative strength, or moving-average returns over different time windows. When a scenario is active, the system tends to allocate a single asset’s full weight (equal-cash weighting when not in a specific scenario) to simplify risk and ensure clarity of exposure. - Rebalancing happens daily, so positions can change quickly as signals flip. This keeps the strategy aligned with current signals but also increases trading costs and turnover. - In short: it’s a disciplined, signal-driven rotation between growth exposure (QQQ/TQQQ) and defensive hedges (PSQ, UVXY, TMV, Treasuries) using a suite of momentum and cross-asset checks, primarily focused on QQQ/PSQ dynamics with SPY as the trigger for regime shifts.

Out-of-sample edge: ~23.45% annualized return vs ~23.21% (S&P), with lower drawdown (15.84% vs 18.76%), Calmar ~1.48 and Sharpe ~1.16. A rules-based QQQ rotation with hedges to capture upside while limiting losses.