🧪Refined HFEA - 8%
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
A crash-aware, regime-switching strategy. In panic, it shorts stocks. In calm with easing yields, it buys the most oversold leveraged stock funds. If yields rise, it turns defensive (USD + hedges). If yields fall, it runs a 55/45 UPRO/TMF HFEA core, with a safety brake.
It’s a tactical “switcher” that uses simple signals to pick where to be:
1) Panic mode: if volatility is surging (a short-term “overheated” score on VIXM), it shorts the S&P 500 with a 3x inverse fund (SPXS).
2) Otherwise, if bonds beat cash over 2 months, it puts ~68% into the three most “oversold” leveraged stock funds (picked from TECL, SOXL, FAS, TQQQ, UPRO).
3) If bonds don’t beat cash, it checks interest rates: when long-term bonds are falling (rates rising), it goes defensive (USD plus either inverse Nasdaq or short Treasuries). When long-term bonds are rising (rates falling), it runs a refined HFEA core: about 55% in 3x S&P 500 (UPRO) and 45% in 3x long Treasuries (TMF) — unless the S&P 500 just had a sharp drop, in which case it parks in T‑bills (BIL).
It rebalances only when weights drift roughly 8% from targets.
Out-of-sample, this crash-aware, regime-switching strategy delivers higher long-run growth than the S&P 500 (≈25.9% vs 22.1%), with built-in hedges and tactical shifts to protect in stress, aiming to grow across market regimes.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6 | 1.12 | 0.13 | 0.35 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 369.91% | 13.7% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.83 | |
| 161,604.2% | 84.57% | -7.46% | 13.09% | 1.39 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$16,170,419.79Regulatory Fees
$50,792.89
Total Slippage
$347,984.92
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 8%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, volatility trigger, rates regime, mean reversion, crash hedge
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPXS
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks