A simple switch using credit strength as a recession/risk gauge: if corporate bonds (LQD) beat T‑bills (BIL) over the last month, own U.S. stocks (SPY). If not, sit in T‑bills (BIL). Aims to avoid stock selloffs and join rallies.

It checks the last 20 trading days. If high‑quality corporate bonds (LQD) earned more than ultra‑short U.S. Treasury bills (BIL), it buys the S&P 500 (SPY). Otherwise, it holds BIL. It flips 100% between SPY (risk‑on) and BIL (risk‑off).

A credit-signal risk-on/off strategy that switches to cash when credit weakens to dodge selloffs and capture rallies. Out-of-sample: drawdown 17.6% vs 18.8%, beta 0.44, Sharpe ~1.45, Calmar ~0.88 vs SPY.