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Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, momentum-based rotation among leveraged ETFs, filtered by Treasury momentum and market-regime signals, selecting two top-momentum assets from a broad ETF pool (or their hedging counterparts) and equal-weighting them; uses short-term momentum (4-day) and RSI cross-market checks to gate the choices.
- Everyday, the system re-evaluates a set of levered and inverse ETFs and decides which two to hold today.
- It uses two main pools of assets: a TMF Check pool and a No TMF Check pool. TMF is a Treasury-bond ETF; the code checks whether its momentum (RSI) is above a threshold to decide which pool to consider.
- Within the chosen pool, it uses a short-term momentum screen (4-day moving-average return) to rank assets. On the highest-ranked assets, it selects two with top momentum (top-2) to hold; in some branches it may choose the bottom-2 in other contexts, effectively tilting to a weaker-momentum pair when conditions call for it.
- The asset list includes common levered/short ETFs across several sectors: HIBL, DRN, FAS, TNA, URTY, EDC, NUGT (long or leveraged bets on High-Beta/Real Estate/Financials/Small Caps/Energy/Gold miners), and their inverse/short partners HIBS, DRV, FAZ, TZA, SRTY, EDZ, DUST for hedging/short exposure.
- RSI checks compare momentum signals across sectors and benchmarks (TMF vs SPY vs IWM vs IEF). If RSI(TM F) > 60, and cross-market conditions (e.g., RSI relationships with IEF/IWM) favor one pool, the system selects top-2 by 4-day momentum from that pool. If not, it routes to the No TMF Check pool, which uses a similar mechanism but may reference a different asset subset. There is also a condition based on SPY RSI (> 71) signaling an overbought regime, which can steer it to the alternate path.
- The final allocation is 2 assets, equally weighted (cash-equal) so each chosen ETF gets 50% of capital. If none of the conditions are met, the code implies staying in cash or not taking new leverage exposure.
- The intent is to ride short-term trends in leveraged ETFs while avoiding unfavorable regimes by requiring multiple confirmations before taking on exposure. The risk is high due to leverage and the complexity of timing signals.
- Practical interpretation for a user: you’re effectively betting on two leveraged ETFs that show the strongest short-term upside today, but only if Treasury momentum and other market signals look favorable. If the signals aren’t favorable, you may end up with a different pair or stay in cash, reducing the chance of a large drawdown during choppier markets.
This strategy targets powerful upside in favorable regimes, delivering an out-of-sample annualized return of about 38.5% vs the S&P’s ~21.4%, with disciplined regime filters and two-levered-ETF picks. Note: higher drawdowns (~49%) may occur.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.92 | 0.79 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 138% | 14.71% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.78 | |
| 15,906.29% | 123.32% | 7.21% | -8.5% | 1.51 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,600,628.91Regulatory Fees
$10,612.18
Total Slippage
$65,902.09
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 19, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum, leveraged etfs, tactical rotation, market regime filtering, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DRN
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DRV
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
DUST
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X ETF
Stocks
EDC
Direxion Daily MSCI Emerging Markets Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
EDZ
Direxion Daily MSCI Emerging Markets Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
FAZ
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x ETF
Stocks
HIBL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
HIBS
Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks