A long-term, RSI-guided, risk-managed strategy that normally targets levered Nasdaq exposure via QLD, but switches to safer assets (TLT, SHY) or hedges (QID, SSO) when RSI or market trends look weak. It uses a 10-day RSI with a high overbought threshold to bail to bonds, a SPY 200-day trend check, and a bottom-RSI selection between Nasdaq-levered and Treasury assets to set weights (roughly 88/12). It aims to catch weird extreme events at the cost of lower upside and potentially larger drawdowns.

In plain terms, this strategy tries to ride Nasdaq gains most of the time but protects you when things look risky. It usually aims to own a levered Nasdaq fund (QLD) to catch big Nasdaq moves. If QLD looks extremely overbought (RSI above about 79 on a 10-day window), the system shifts into safer bonds (TLT) instead of buying more Nasdaq. Separately, it checks whether the broad market (SPY, the S&P 500 fund) is in an uptrend by comparing its price to its 200-day average. If SPY is above that average (a bullish signal), the model proceeds with its risk-on tilt and tries to pick the asset with the lowest RSI (the most oversold) between QLD and SHY, giving most of the weight to that choice. If SPY is not above its 200-day average, the model stays more cautious and can move toward cash-like exposure orTreasuries. There are additional layers that consider QQQ (the Nasdaq 100 ETF) and inverse/alternative levered options (QID for short Nasdaq, SSO for levered S&P 500) and it uses a small RSI-based screen (e.g., QQQ RSI thresholds) to decide whether to tilt toward hedges or toward Nasdaq exposure. When a chosen asset is selected, the system applies a heavy emphasis (about 88% of the allocation) to the lowest-RSI candidate among the paired assets, with the remaining slice allocated to other hedges. The overall design is to chase extreme Nasdaq moves when conditions look favorable and to protect capital when momentum or market breadth deteriorates. The “bail on too low RSI” rule specifically prevents buying when RSI is extremely low (oversold) and instead moves toward SHY, reflecting a preference for safer exposure in deeply weak conditions. The lack of a regular rebalance means signals, rather than a calendar, drive adjustments. Overall, it’s a complex, signal-driven, risk-managed approach intended to capture large Nasdaq moves while limiting downside through bonds and hedges.

Out-of-sample edge: ~38% annualized return vs SPY ~23%; Calmar ~1.05 with disciplined risk management. Captures Nasdaq upside when conditions are favorable, using RSI and trend hedges to limit losses—potential for stronger long-run growth than the S&P 500.