A daily, momentum- and regime-driven strategy that swings between 3x leveraged tech/Nasdaq exposure in up markets and a diversified hedge basket in down markets, guided by bond momentum, RSI screening, and volatility tests, with a backtested, K-1-free, fund-surfing twist.

- Every day, the system first checks bond momentum to decide the regime. If the 56-day cumulative return of BND is positive, it enters Risk On; otherwise it considers Risk Off. There are sub-paths for Rising Rates vs Falling Rates within Risk Off. - In Risk On, the system looks at candidates TECL, TQQQ, and IEF (all ETFs, with 3x leverage available on the first two). It ranks these by their 21-day RSI (momentum/overbought measure) and selects the lowest-RSI asset(s) to hold, but only if that choice isn’t overly volatile (compared to SPY’s 21-day volatility). If the volatility check fails, it falls back to a safer short-term Treasuries ETF (SHY) or similar. In practice, this yields a single main holding (or a very small, equal-weighted slice) focused on the bottom-RSI, lowest-vol asset among the pool. - In Risk Off, the strategy rotates into hedges: dollar strength plays (USDU), yen exposure (FXY), currency-hedged global exposure (HEFA), anti-beta funds (BTAL), commodities (PDBC), and hedged/defensive equity plays (XLP and scaled UGE variants). It uses RSI or other signals to pick the best 1–2 hedges and may incorporate bear/short ETFs (SQQQ, TZA, SJB, etc.) depending on signals. There are also tests using moving-average price or return relationships (e.g., TLT’s 20-day moving-average) to trigger or confirm risk-off allocations. - Special cases differentiate “Risk Off, Rising Rates” vs “Risk Off, Falling Rates” with distinct hedge mixes and triggers. - The strategy is rebalanced daily, with modifications across versions aimed at reducing drawdown and improving testability. - It uses ETFs exclusively to stay K-1 free and to simplify backtesting; CTAs (like KMLM, DBMF) were considered but limited for backtesting practicality. - The design intends to capture upside in sustained up markets via 3x leveraged tech/Nasdaq exposure, while offering layered hedges to curb drawdowns in risk-off regimes. Note: this is an experimental framework and not investment advice; levered ETFs imply magnified risk and sensitivity to inputs and market regime changes.

Regime-driven, ETF-only strategy: 3x tech in up markets, hedges in down markets. Out-of-sample return ~53.8%/yr with ~1.29 Sharpe and ~1.26 Calmar—strong upside vs S&P with disciplined risk control.