A daily, risk-managed, 3x-levered equity strategy that rotates between UPRO/TQQQ and hedging assets using bond signals and RSI-based filters to try for big upside while limiting drawdown.

Overview for a layman: - What it does: The strategy tries to ride big stock-market up moves using 3x leveraged ETFs, but only when bonds (a traditional safety/haven asset) look healthy. When bonds are weak, it shifts to safer or alternative assets to protect capital. - Daily decision: Every trading day it decides whether markets look good (risk-on) or risky (risk-off) based on bond performance and other filters, then picks assets accordingly. - Risk-on logic: If the 56-day bond signal is positive, the algorithm pools funds into a small, highly filtered pick among some 3x equity ETFs (like UPRO and TQQQ) and a short-term bond ETF (SHY). It uses a short-term momentum/strength check (RSI over ~21 days) to choose the one asset to hold, with a vesting rule that ensures the chosen asset meets a volatility check against a broad market (SPY) benchmark. - Risk-off logic: If the bond signal is not positive, the system moves into hedges and safer assets. It rotates among currency-related ETFs (US dollar bullish, Yen, currency-hedged foreign stocks), a commodity fund, and a bear/anti-beta mix to reduce drawdown. It also can include 3x inverse or bear ETFs for protection in rising-rate environments (e.g., TMV/TBT, SQQQ, SJB). - How it holds capital: In risk-on phases it tends to put weight on a single best candidate (1 asset) from the risk-on set, distributing cash evenly to the rest only as a padding, and it rebalances daily. - Backtesting notes: The design has evolved to test different “fund surfing” versions (from 1 asset to 2 assets in some modes). The current flavor emphasizes safer drawdown control during market stress and avoids some earlier CTA-like components to keep backtests interpretable. - What you’re exposed to: A mix of 3x stock leverage (UPRO, TQQQ), short-term Treasuries (SHY), long-dated Treasuries (TLT), currency plays (USDU, FXY, HEFA), commodity and bear/beta hedges (PDBC, BTAL, SJB, SQQQ, TBT, TMV), and a leveraged sector/alternative overlay (UGE). The exact mix shifts daily based on the rule set described above. - Why it might work: It aims to ride strong equity rallies with leverage, but safeguards are built in to move toward safer assets when bond signals deteriorate or when volatility/defensive indicators worsen. The RSI and standard-deviation checks try to avoid buying assets that are too overbought or too volatile relative to the market. - Limitations: Like all levered strategies, it can magnify losses in choppy markets. It depends on the reliability of the bond signal as a risk-on proxy and on the filters (RSI, volatility screens) functioning as intended. Real-world results depend on costs (fees, slippage) and the exact market regime.

Outperform SPY on big upside with built-in risk control. This daily, risk-managed 3x-levered strategy delivered ~39.9% OOS annualized return vs SPY’s ~21.1%, with Sharpe ~1.15 and dynamic hedges. Note: drawdowns can be larger in stressed markets.