A daily, rules‑based plan that flips between aggressive 3x stock funds in calm markets and defensive hedges when stress or rising rates hit. It buys recent losers (using a quick 0–100 move score) for rebounds and uses Treasuries, gold, dollar, or shorts in Risk‑Off.

Step 1: Set the mood. If the broad U.S. bond market (BND) has risen over ~11 weeks, it’s Risk‑On; otherwise Risk‑Off. RSI = a quick 0–100 “recent move” score (low=has fallen). UVXY = a volatility gauge. Risk‑On/calm: buy 4 funds that fell most over ~1 month from 3x stock funds (tech/semis/Nasdaq/S&P/financials) plus some diversifiers (Treasuries, commodities, anti‑beta). Risk‑On/hot: instead pick long‑ or short‑Treasuries or run a faster 5‑day bounce across stocks/commodities. Risk‑Off: if rates rise, hold U.S. dollar plus a short in stocks or Treasuries; if rates fall, hold gold, long Treasuries, a defensive factor fund, and consumer staples. Rebalances daily.

Out-of-sample: 24.6% annualized vs 21.9% for the S&P, driven by adaptive regime switching and mean-reversion across stocks, bonds, and diversifiers. Note: drawdowns are higher (≈60% vs ≈19%), so suited to long-horizon, risk-tolerant investors.