Protected Leverage v2.2 3x S&P 500 / NASDAQ v1.1 + Blend: V4 & V5 CFS + BBD, BHFEAR | BIL
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, multi-layer, protected-leverage system that alternates between aggressive 3x levered bets on S&P 500 and Nasdaq (via UPRO/TQQQ with a TMF hedge) and defensive cash/hedges (BIL/TMF) based on momentum, volatility, and drawdown checks. It blends several risk-tue strategies (1.5–2% stdev styles) into a single, adaptive exposure pie that aims to grow in uptrends while protecting capital in riskier periods.
- It runs every day and decides whether to chase exposure (Risk ON) or protect capital (Risk OFF).
- When Risk ON, it tilts toward levered equity bets using UPRO (3x S&P 500) and TQQQ (3x Nasdaq) with a significant weight to those two, plus some treasury-based hedge via TMF. The weights vary by sub-strategy but typical builds favor more equity leverage with a supplementary TMF portion to diversify risk.
- When Risk OFF, it shifts to cash-like holdings (BIL) and/or hedges to dampen drawdowns.
- Several sub-strategies (e.g., 1.5% stdev, 2% stdev, etc.) operate with different volatility/risk budgets, so the blended result adapts to changing market conditions.
- Signals come from a combination of momentum-ish checks (RSI-like comparisons), volatility and standard deviation screens, drawdown history, and dip-buying logic (buy the dips on Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 while watching for risk spikes).
- The design uses nested decision trees that weigh recent performance windows (1-day, 5-day, 21-day, up to 252-day lookbacks), compares to safe-bond proxies (e.g., SHY, BIL), and applies threshold tests (e.g., max drawdown > x% triggers hedges).
- The strategy favors a tactical, risk-controlled approach: it wants upside when markets advance but minimizes damage when volatility or drawdown rises, aiming for a protected 3x exposure profile overall.
Dynamic, risk-controlled leverage aims to beat the S&P. OOS return 37.3% vs 21.8%; Calmar ~0.75. Daily rebalancing with hedges seeks upside in uptrends and capital protection in downturns—note higher drawdown risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jun 9, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged equity strategy, risk-managed allocation, trend-following, tactical asset allocation, multi-strategy blend
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks