A daily, rule-based, 3x-levered equity strategy that alternates between risky leveraged stock bets (SOXL, TECL, UPRO, TQQQ, FAS, etc.) in a Bottom-RSI-driven selection and defensive hedges (TMF, TMV, UUP, UGL, BTAL, DBC/DBA) driven by a bond-based risk signal. It uses Fund Surfing rotations with RSI and drawdown filters to pick 2–4 assets per day and rebalances to 100% exposure among them, aiming for high upside while managing drawdown across rate regimes (backtested 2011–2022 with claimed 136% annualized return and 28% max drawdown). Notes indicate multiple version tweaks to improve drawdown control and rate- environment responses.

- The system runs a daily check to decide whether the market environment is more favorable (risk-on) or risky (risk-off). - Risk-on is signaled by the bond market signal (60-day cumulative return of BND/BIL in the notes; effectively a bond-health proxy). When the signal is positive, the strategy seeks to own 3x leveraged equity exposure. - Ownership in risk-on mode is selected from a pool of high-momentum/levered ETFs. Two main asset pools are used: • Pool A (Bottom 4 by 21-day RSI): Direxion SOXL (semiconductors, 3x), TECL (technology, 3x), UPRO (S&P 500, 3x), TQQQ (QQQ, 3x), FAS (financials, 3x), UMDD (mid-cap 3x), and other related leveraged themes. The bottom 4 assets by RSI (the ones that have been relatively oversold recently) are chosen and weighted equally. • Pool B (Bottom 2 by 5-day RSI): Similar idea but selecting the bottom 2 assets by very short-term RSI to capture quick bounce candidates, including assets like SPY, QQQ, TECL, TQQQ, UPRO, UMDD, DBC/DBA (commodities), etc. - In addition, there are “Fund Surf w/ Commodities” and other variants that include non-stock assets (DBC, DBA for commodities, BTAL for anti-beta exposure, SHY for short bonds, UGL for gold, TMF/TMV for long/short Treasuries) to reduce drawdowns and diversify sources of return. - The decision logic applies several filters (relative strength, max drawdown over a short window, moving-average-like signals, etc.) to pick a small subset (commonly 2–4 assets) and then weights them equally for the day (100% allocated among the chosen assets). - The process is repeated daily, with assets rotated as the signals change. If risk-off conditions dominate (rising rates or market stress), the system shifts toward hedges and lower-risk assets rather than chasing triple-leverage equity exposure. - The overall aim is to deliver strong upside in bullish regimes while limiting downside in adverse regimes, using a mix of 3x leveraged equity exposure and a set of hedges and diversifiers. The backtester notes suggest attempts to improve drawdown in certain regimes (e.g., Covid panic, rising/falling rate environments) by tweaking asset selection rules and adding/removing assets. - Important caveats: RSI-based selection and drawdown/return filters rely on historical relationships that may not hold going forward; leverage amplifies both gains and losses; transaction costs, slippage, and liquidity can materially affect real-world results; conditions that triggered the backtests may not repeat. - In plain terms: when the market looks calm and favorable to stocks, you get a turbo-charged equity sleeve chosen from several leveraged bets. When it looks rocky or rates move against stocks, the strategy pivots toward hedges and less risky assets to protect capital, using a structured, rules-based rotation rather than a single “always buy the market” approach.

Out-of-sample: ~25.7% annualized return vs ~23% for the S&P, oos Sharpe ~0.77, beta ~0.88. A rules-based risk-on/off system using leveraged equity with hedges to boost upside while aiming to limit drawdowns.