A daily, dynamic strategy that uses a 60-day bond mood signal to switch between a 3x-levered equity sleeve (risk-on) and hedged risk-off positions (based on rate direction). It selects two of four levered ETFs using a momentum signal for upside when risk is on, and employs USD, inverse equity, gold, and Treasury hedges when risk is off. Highly leveraged and active, it aims for big upside in rallies while seeking protection during pullbacks.

Here's the idea in plain language: - Every day, the system asks: are we in a ‘risk-on’ or ‘risk-off’ mood? It decides this by comparing how bond categories performed over the last 60 days. If bonds performed in a way that suggests appetite for risk, it goes risk-on. If bonds suggest caution, it goes risk-off. - Risk-on (the upbeat mood): It looks at four big, 3x levered stock bets (SOXL for semiconductors, TQQQ for Nasdaq-100, UPRO for the S&P 500, and TECL for technology). It ranks these four using a simple momentum signal (RSI) over about 10 days and picks the two with more favorable momentum to own. Those two take up most of the portfolio (about two-thirds of the total), while the rest sits in cash. - Risk-off (the cautious mood): It splits into two sub-cases based on what’s happening with interest rates. - If rates look like they’re rising, the portfolio shifts toward the U.S. dollar and hedges against stocks (e.g., a short Nasdaq ETF and a short-long-duration Treasury ETF), aiming to protect against falling prices when rates rise. - If rates look like they’re falling, it favors assets that tend to do well in that environment (gold, very long Treasuries, anti-beta hedges, and defensive consumer staples). - The allocation is updated every trading day (daily rebalance), and the overall approach is designed to magnify gains in strong uptrends (via leverage) while providing protection in other times via hedges. - It uses a backtesting framework that compares this dynamic approach to a simple buy-and-hold of the same levered assets, to see whether the added complexity improves risk-adjusted results.

Out-of-sample: ~49% annualized return with Calmar ~0.74, beating SPY's ~23%. The strategy uses dynamic leverage to seize rallies (risk-on) and rate-sensitive hedges (risk-off). Higher drawdowns (~66%) bring bigger upside, with added risk.