Protect Downside: Simple Beta Baller Signal | IEF>IBTK (Other IBT*, SPTI ,SCHQ are related) & SHY>SBND (IBTF, ITBG, ITBE are related)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A daily tactical system that mostly rides semiconductors (with 3× leverage) when conditions are favorable, hides in T‑bills during fear, and runs a separate gold/miners sleeve. Uses simple “hot/cold” gauges and bond signals to flip risk; very high risk/volatility.
1) Fear spike? If a volatility gauge looks “very hot,” park in T‑bills (cash-like).
2) Otherwise, use bond-vs-cash momentum to judge risk-on/off. If risk-on and stocks aren’t too hot, buy a 3× semiconductor fund; if overheated, step into short-term Treasuries. If risk-off, use inverse semis/Nasdaq instead.
3) Always compare the pick vs cash and take the recent 5‑day winner.
4) A separate gold sleeve rotates among gold/miners and hedges based on trend and “hot/cold.”
Daily rebalance. Uses leveraged ETFs; expect big swings.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~43.8% vs SPY ~39.8%, driven by agile semis bets and risk hedges (T-bills, gold sleeve). Calmar ~2.20 signals solid risk-adjusted upside, even with bigger drawdowns during fear spikes.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | 0.2 | 0.01 | 0.1 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67.63% | 12.54% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.76 | |
| 3,023.95% | 119.69% | -12.96% | -11.2% | 2.33 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$312,394.96Regulatory Fees
$1,678.96
Total Slippage
$10,873.61
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 15, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, momentum/trend, semiconductors focus, gold sleeve, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged & inverse etfs, volatility filter, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 30 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DUST
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares
Stocks
FNDE
Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Equity ETF
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
GLL
ProShares UltraShort Gold
Stocks
GUNR
FlexShares Global Upstream Natural Resources Index Fund
Stocks
HIBL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
IBTK
iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term Treasury ETF
Stocks
JDST
Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares
Stocks