[Potus] BIL+
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A simple trend-following plan: in up markets (SPY above its 200-day average) you invest in two ultra-short bond funds (GSY and PULS) equally; in down markets (SPY below the 200-day average) you park in a short-term Treasuries fund (BIL) for safety.
- The strategy looks at SPY (a broad market proxy) and compares its current price to SPY’s 200-day moving average.
- If SPY is trading above its 200-day average (a sign of a longer uptrend), it moves 100% of allocated cash into two ultra-short bond ETFs, split 50/50 between GSY (Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF) and PULS (PGIM Ultra Short Bond ETF).
- If SPY is trading at or below its 200-day average (a potential downtrend), it moves 100% into BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF), a cash-like, very short-term Treasuries position.
- The “20-day” window is a short-term look-back used within the uptrend branch to determine the 50/50 split between GSY and PULS. The strategy does not actively rebalance on a frequent timetable (rebalance: none) and allows a small corridor (5%) before any targeting drift is acknowledged.
- In short: up market tilt to ultra-short bonds for yield with low duration risk; down market tilt to short-term Treasuries for capital preservation.
Out-of-sample, this trend-following plan offers far stronger risk-adjusted returns and far smaller drawdowns vs the S&P 500: higher Sharpe/Calmar, 4% max drawdown vs ~13.7%, plus yield in up markets and capital protection in downturns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 185.52% | 14.17% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.78 | |
| 28.47% | 3.22% | 0.16% | 0.96% | 7.94 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$12,847.15Regulatory Fees
$16.48
Total Slippage
$103.87
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 7, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, tactical allocation, capital preservation, short-duration bonds