A simple trend-following plan: in up markets (SPY above its 200-day average) you invest in two ultra-short bond funds (GSY and PULS) equally; in down markets (SPY below the 200-day average) you park in a short-term Treasuries fund (BIL) for safety.

- The strategy looks at SPY (a broad market proxy) and compares its current price to SPY’s 200-day moving average. - If SPY is trading above its 200-day average (a sign of a longer uptrend), it moves 100% of allocated cash into two ultra-short bond ETFs, split 50/50 between GSY (Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF) and PULS (PGIM Ultra Short Bond ETF). - If SPY is trading at or below its 200-day average (a potential downtrend), it moves 100% into BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF), a cash-like, very short-term Treasuries position. - The “20-day” window is a short-term look-back used within the uptrend branch to determine the 50/50 split between GSY and PULS. The strategy does not actively rebalance on a frequent timetable (rebalance: none) and allows a small corridor (5%) before any targeting drift is acknowledged. - In short: up market tilt to ultra-short bonds for yield with low duration risk; down market tilt to short-term Treasuries for capital preservation.

Out-of-sample, this trend-following plan offers far stronger risk-adjusted returns and far smaller drawdowns vs the S&P 500: higher Sharpe/Calmar, 4% max drawdown vs ~13.7%, plus yield in up markets and capital protection in downturns.