Portfolio: V4 | Cautious Fund Surfing | 3x with V1.1 | Bear BUYDIPS, Bull HFEAR | No K-1 | BIL
Today’s Change (Jan 21, 2026)
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About
Daily, rules‑based portfolio that rotates among leveraged S&P/tech, long Treasuries, and T‑bills. Buys ~1‑week dips, runs a 55/45 stock–bond mix in calm uptrends, and parks in T‑bills when risk is high. Uses ETFs only (no K‑1).
Each day the rules check: 1) how choppy SPY is, 2) whether stocks or T‑bills have the stronger recent trend, 3) if S&P or Nasdaq dropped ~5% in a week. Then: calm uptrend → 55% leveraged stocks + 45% leveraged long Treasuries; fresh dip → buy S&P/tech (favor the quieter one); if a 1‑day rebound >5% → wait in T‑bills; risky tape → sit in T‑bills. Funds: UPRO/TQQQ=3x S&P/Nasdaq; SPUU=2x S&P; IYW=tech; TMF/TYD=3x Treas.; BIL/SGOV/SHY=T‑bills.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~26.6% annualized return vs SPY ~23%, with Calmar ≈1.00 and disciplined dip-buying plus T-bill hedges. Leveraged, diversified, no K‑1s—strong upside with controlled risk versus the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.17 | 0.72 | 0.5 | 0.71 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 142.63% | 17.05% | -1.06% | 1.23% | 1 | |
| 372.11% | 31.74% | -2.16% | 3.31% | 1.66 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$47,211.42Regulatory Fees
$105.45
Total Slippage
$604.75
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 1, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, dip buying, trend filter, risk management, us stocks, technology, treasuries, t‑bills
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IYW
iShares U.S. Technology ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SGOV
iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPUU
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X Shares
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
TYD
Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index symbol AXSVTN)
Stocks