Pinnacle - Junk Bonds & Short Term Treasuries as Leading Indicators
Today’s Change (Oct 8, 2026)
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About
A daily, credit‑led rotation. It reads how fast junk bonds and short‑term Treasuries are moving to spot stress or easing, then shifts into one of four baskets: recovery, early‑volatility, bond‑friendly, or inflation/short‑vol. Uses some leveraged/inverse ETFs.
It watches two gauges, using RSI (a 0–100 “speed of recent moves” score: low=falling fast, high=rising fast). JNK = junk bonds; SHY = 1–3yr Treasuries.
• If JNK falls fast: risk is rising. If SHY is surging, play “recovery”; else prepare for a volatility spike.
• If JNK is fine: if SHY is surging, favor bonds/defensives; else favor inflation‑tilted, short‑vol plays.
Out-of-sample annualized return: 28.6% vs SPY 18.6%; Sharpe: 1.34 vs 1.13; max drawdown: 12.1% vs 18.8%; beta: 0.62; Calmar: 2.35. Higher upside with smoother risk thanks to regime-based rotation and diversified, daily rebalanced exposure.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.5 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 766.47% | 15.52% | 1.72% | 4.21% | 0.95 | |
| 25,937.46% | 45% | 0.72% | 1.52% | 2.03 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,603,746.47Regulatory Fees
$13,744.28
Total Slippage
$111,976.91
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 16, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Macro regime, credit-led timing, tactical etf rotation, rsi momentum, long/short, rates & commodities, volatility stance, daily rebalance, leveraged/inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 30 assets in total
Ticker
Type
ARCC
Ares Capital Corporation
Stocks
BEN
Franklin Templeton, Inc.
Stocks
DXJ
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund
Stocks
EEV
ProShares Trust UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks
EUO
ProShares UltraShort Euro
Stocks
FHI
Federated Hermes, Inc.
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
Stocks
IAI
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
Stocks
IHF
iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF
Stocks