Pinnacle - Junk Bonds & Short Term Treasuries as Leading Indicators
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A fast-moving market-timing strategy that uses junk bonds and short-term Treasuries as early warning signals to switch between defensive, recovery, and risk-on investments.
This strategy watches two “stress gauges”: junk bonds (JNK) and short-term U.S. Treasuries (SHY). It uses RSI, which is just a quick score of whether something has moved up or down sharply lately.
If junk bonds are falling hard, it treats that as danger and shifts defensive or bearish. If short-term Treasuries are rising strongly, it assumes falling rates may support bonds, gold, real estate, and growth stocks. If neither warning sign is flashing, it leans into a risk-on mix like financials, chips, oil, and a bet on calmer markets.
Out-of-sample edge: 30.46% annualized return vs 17.71% S&P; Sharpe 1.42 vs 1.09; max drawdown 12.14% vs 18.76%; Calmar ~2.51. Higher upside with better downside control through smart regime-switching.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.5 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 761.86% | 15.43% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.95 | |
| 27,233.2% | 45.33% | 2.82% | 6.21% | 2.04 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,733,320.34Regulatory Fees
$14,085.15
Total Slippage
$114,039.93
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 16, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, regime switching, credit signals, interest rate signals, sector rotation, leveraged/inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 30 assets in total
Ticker
Type
ARCC
Ares Capital Corporation
Stocks
BEN
Franklin Templeton, Inc.
Stocks
DXJ
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund
Stocks
EEV
ProShares Trust UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks
EUO
ProShares UltraShort Euro
Stocks
FHI
Federated Hermes, Inc.
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
Stocks
IAI
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
Stocks
IHF
iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF
Stocks