Pick the Trending Commodity
Today’s Change (Feb 15, 2026)
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About
Monthly, equal-weight sleeves in gold, agriculture, base metals, oil, uranium, and timber. Hold a sleeve’s commodity fund only if it beat 7–10 year U.S. Treasuries (IEF) over the past month; otherwise hold IEF. Simple, rules-based trend toggle.
Each month your money is split equally into 6 sleeves: gold (GLD), agriculture (DBA), base metals like copper/aluminum (DBB), oil (DBO), uranium miners (URA), and timber/forestry stocks (WOOD).
For each sleeve, we look at the last ~1 month. If that fund did better than a 7–10 year U.S. Treasury bond fund (IEF), we hold it; if not, we hold IEF instead. Equal weights across sleeves; repeat monthly. This aims to ride rising commodities and fall back to bonds when they cool.
Six-sleeve commodity trend strategy offers stronger risk-adjusted results than the S&P: out-of-sample Sharpe ~0.86 vs ~0.82, lower max drawdown ~15.6% vs ~22.1%, and positive alpha, plus a rules-based hedge to Treasuries when momentum falters.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 629.38% | 14.01% | -1.73% | 1.75% | 0.85 | |
| 119.87% | 5.33% | 3.42% | 9.83% | 0.57 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$21,986.52Regulatory Fees
$31.09
Total Slippage
$178.61
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 13, 2022
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, momentum, commodities, tactical allocation, bonds, defensive, rules-based
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total