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About
A quarterly strategy that uses the bond market as a risk signal: if conditions look healthy, it buys the strongest recent performer among mid-cap stocks, Nasdaq stocks, or short-term Treasuries; otherwise it hides in Treasury bonds.
Every 3 months, the strategy first checks the bond market for a “risk” signal.
If the broad U.S. bond market (BND) has done better than very short-term T-bills/cash (BIL) over the last 60 days, it goes into “risk on” mode and buys whichever has performed best over the last 90 days: mid-sized U.S. stocks (MDY), Nasdaq growth stocks (QQQ), or short-term Treasuries (SHY).
If not, it plays defense and holds 7–10 year U.S. Treasury bonds (IEF).
Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers steadier risk-managed gains: ~7.7% annualized return with ~17% max drawdown (vs S&P ~22%), Sharpe ~0.78 and positive alpha, offering better downside protection and risk-adjusted strength for a core equity sleeve.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 650.14% | 11.11% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.63 | |
| 446.71% | 9.29% | -0.67% | -2.28% | 0.73 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$54,671.24Regulatory Fees
$27.14
Total Slippage
$235.13
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 13, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, momentum, regime filter, stocks and bonds, quarterly, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total