PHASE TEST of Inflation Spiral Hedge
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Daily dynamic hedge: rank a small ETF set, invest 100% in the top asset if a treasury-momentum test passes; otherwise switch to QQQ. Rebalanced daily with ETF leverage/cost considerations.
On each trading day:
1) The system looks at a small set of inflation-hedge assets (e.g., treasury-short ETFs and a broad equity proxy).
2) It ranks them by a short‑term performance metric adjusted for risk (14-day standard deviation of returns).
3) The top-ranked asset is chosen as the primary candidate.
4) A momentum check runs using a treasury ETF signal: compare 60-day cumulative return (lhs, using TBT) to a 253-day baseline (rhs). If the 60-day return is at least 10% of the longer-term signal (lhs >= rhs), the strategy allocates 100% to the top asset.
5) If the condition isn’t met, it falls back to QQQ (the fallback asset).
6) Rebalance happens daily. Expect ETF costs, potential leverage risk, and the usual ETF-specified risks to influence results.
Inflation-hedged, dynamic strategy that switches to QQQ when momentum signals fail. Out-of-sample: Sharpe ~1.09, annualized return ~21.69%, beta ~0.82 vs SPY, Calmar ~0.95. Adds diversification and inflation protection beyond the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07 | 0.89 | 0.62 | 0.79 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 761.98% | 13.96% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.85 | |
| 1,822.66% | 19.64% | 0.33% | -1.59% | 1.02 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$192,265.72Regulatory Fees
$378.66
Total Slippage
$2,349.46
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 24, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Inflation hedge, etf-based, dynamic allocation, risk management, treasury-short, leveraged etf awareness, multi-asset