Pershing Square Portfolio - (AR:39.4%, DD:44.0%) 200d Bull & Bear Hedge
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
In uptrends it holds a Bill Ackman–style stock basket. In downtrends it switches to short‑term signals to pick leveraged long/short Nasdaq, inverse S&P 500, bonds or cash‑like T‑bills, aiming to hedge or profit when markets fall.
1) If SPY (S&P 500 fund) sits above its 200‑day average, hold Pershing Square stocks: HLT, CMG, QSR (restaurants/hotels), GOOGL (tech), HHH (real estate), CP (rail), BN (asset mgr), NKE.
2) Otherwise, a bear playbook uses RSI (0–100 recent‑strength score), 20‑day averages, and short‑term moves in QQQ and bond funds (BND, TLT, IEF) to choose: TQQQ (3× up Nasdaq), SQQQ/SPXU/SPXS (3× down), PSQ (1× down), or BIL (T‑bills). Aim: hedge or profit in sell‑offs. Leveraged funds are high‑risk.
Strong risk-adjusted edge via regime-switching: out-of-sample Sharpe ~0.84, Calmar ~0.87, and lower drawdown (18.28% vs 18.76%). Slightly lower raw return than SPY but offers meaningful downside protection and steadier, diversified growth.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.97 | 0.6 | 0.77 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 299.83% | 13.12% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.79 | |
| 1,655.15% | 29.04% | -3.94% | -0.41% | 1.26 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$175,514.65Regulatory Fees
$114.31
Total Slippage
$676.08
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 30, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switching, trend-following, 13f clone, momentum/rsi, leveraged/inverse etfs, tactical hedging, equity–bond–cash rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 20 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BN
Brookfield Corporation
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Stocks
CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
Stocks
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock
Stocks
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
Stocks
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
NKE
Nike, Inc.
Stocks