A two-state system: bullish when SPY is above its 200-day average (fixed eight-stock portfolio from Pershing Square 13F with set weights), and bearish when SPY is below (leveraged/inverse ETF hedges around QQQ/SPY plus bond proxies guided by RSI/return signals).

- It first checks whether SPY is above its 200-day moving average. If yes, it enters Bull mode and buys a fixed, cash-equal-weighted basket of eight Pershing Square 13F holdings (HLT, CMG, QSR, GOOGL, HHH, CP, BN, NKE) with exact weights summing to 100. If SPY is below the 200-day average, it switches to Bear mode. - In Bear mode, the strategy uses a nested set of rules to tilt among a family of levered/inverse ETFs around QQQ, SPY, and bonds (examples include TQQQ, SQQQ, PSQ, SPXU, IEF, BND, TLT, BIL) along with occasional bond/treasury proxies. It uses momentum signals such as RSI and cumulative return (over windows like 10, 20, 60 days) to decide which hedges or hedged proxies to emphasize. - Across Bear, comparisons like “is RSI(BND) greater than RSI(QQQ)?” or “is QQQ’s momentum stronger than IEF’s over the last 10–20 days?” guide entries and exits. The structure includes several sub-groups (Bear 1, Bear 2) that layer additional checks (e.g., cross-asset RSI checks, cross-asset returns, and short-term vs long-term momentum). - Cash is allocated within each active bucket (Bull or Bear) according to the specified weights; rebalancing is determined by the discrete decision nodes rather than continuous drift. - In short, the strategy goes full long on a fixed set of fundamental picks when the market trend is up (SPY above 200-day MA), and flips to a hedge-centric, ETF-driven setup using leveraged/inverse instruments and bond proxies when the trend is down, with several RSI/return signals sharpening when to tilt among hedges.

Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~16% annualized returns with a lower market beta (~0.82) and stronger downside protection (drawdown ~18.3% vs SPY ~18.8%). It wins in up markets with a fixed 8-stock basket and hedges risk via ETFs and bonds.