Pershing Square Portfolio - (AR:39.4%, DD:44.0%) 200d Bull & Bear Hedge
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Owns a concentrated Pershing Square–style stock basket in S&P 500 uptrends. In downtrends, it either sticks with that basket after short tech sell‑offs or switches to tactical hedges using leveraged long/short Nasdaq or S&P and cash-like T‑bills.
Regime filter: if SPY is above its 200‑day moving average (uptrend), hold a fixed 8‑stock basket (Hilton, Chipotle, Restaurant Brands, Alphabet, Howard Hughes, Canadian Pacific, Brookfield, Nike). If below: if tech (XLK) fell >1% in 10 days, keep the basket; otherwise two sleeves use short‑term momentum (RSI) and a 20‑day trend on TQQQ to flip among TQQQ/SQQQ, SPXS/SPXU, PSQ, or cash‑like BIL. Leveraged ETFs mean high volatility.
Regime-driven strategy: concentrated uptrends, nimble downtrend hedges. Out-of-sample: ~16% annualized return, Sharpe ~0.84, Calmar ~0.87, with slightly smaller drawdown than the S&P 500 — delivering strong, risk‑adjusted upside.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.15 | 0.97 | 0.6 | 0.77 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 308.37% | 13.38% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.8 | |
| 1,688.79% | 29.36% | -3.81% | 1.32% | 1.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$178,879.01Regulatory Fees
$114.31
Total Slippage
$676.08
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 30, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend-following, momentum, leveraged etfs, market timing, concentrated equities, 13f replication, hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 20 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BN
Brookfield Corporation
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Stocks
CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
Stocks
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock
Stocks
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
Stocks
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
NKE
Nike, Inc.
Stocks