Mostly owns Pershing Square’s picks. When markets look overheated on a short‑term gauge (RSI), it adds a 20% volatility hedge (UVXY). If shipping rates are firm (BDRY) or stocks are oversold, it stays long; otherwise it rotates into short/defensive ETFs using quick trend checks.

Core: a basket of Pershing Square’s stocks (Hilton, Chipotle, Google, etc.). RSI (a 0–100 “speedometer” of recent gains): if many indexes/sectors read very hot (RSI ≳80), stay in the basket but add a 20% fear hedge (UVXY), which jumps when volatility spikes. If a shipping‑rate gauge (BDRY) is firm or the S&P 500 is washed‑out (RSI <30), stay bullish. Otherwise flip defensive using inverse ETFs (e.g., SQQQ/SPXU), guided by short‑term trend and bond strength.

Out-of-sample edge: ≈20.8% annualized return vs ≈18.2% for SPY; max drawdown ≈14.8% vs ≈18.8%; Calmar ≈1.40. OOS Sharpe ≈0.83 (vs ≈0.98). More upside with downside protection than the S&P 500.