Pencil's Down V3 | 4.8.25
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rule‑based, risk‑on/risk‑off “trend hunter” that rides strong uptrends (often in 3x tech/semis) and rapidly shifts to cash, Treasuries, the dollar, or volatility/inverse hedges when fear or downtrends appear. Includes EM and Bitcoin sleeves.
Each day it checks simple market health gauges: a heat meter of recent buying vs. selling (RSI), price trends (moving averages), and the “fear” index (VIX). If fear is low and trends are up, it concentrates in fast movers (often 3x tech/semis like TQQQ/SOXL/UPRO). If fear jumps or trends break, it quickly moves to T‑Bills (BIL/SHV), Treasuries (TLT/TMF), the dollar (UUP), or hedges (SQQQ, SPXU, VIXY/UVXY). It also has sleeves for emerging markets and Bitcoin (BITO/GBTC + miners) that switch on only when their trends are healthy. KMLM (a managed‑futures ETF) is used as a cross‑check on big‑picture trend. Uses many leveraged funds, so swings can be large.
Out-of-sample, this trend-timed strategy beats the S&P 500 on risk-adjusted return: Sharpe 2.71 vs 2.28; annualized return ~89% vs ~27%; Calmar ~9.35. It captures big uptrends and hedges pullbacks for stronger, more resilient growth.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.56 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.1 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77.87% | 18.18% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 1.09 | |
| 19,912.16% | 364.89% | -1.75% | 8.37% | 4.57 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,001,216.07Regulatory Fees
$4,787.07
Total Slippage
$30,247.53
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 18, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Aggressive multi‑strategy, trend following, volatility‑timed, leveraged etfs, tech momentum, crypto sleeve, risk‑on/off, tactical allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 112 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Stocks
ABBV
ABBVIE INC.
Stocks
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
Stocks
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
Stocks
AMZN
Amazon.Com Inc
Stocks
ARBK
Argo Blockchain plc American Depositary Shares
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BITF
Bitfarms Ltd. Common Stock
Stocks
BITI
ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF
Stocks