Pencil's Down V3 | 2.23.26
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rules-based “traffic-light” system. In calm uptrends it loads into 3x tech/semis; in stress it parks in T‑bills/bonds/market‑neutral or uses hedges/shorts. Separate sleeves toggle emerging markets and crypto. Uses RSI/MAs; high risk due to leverage.
Think of four dashboards: trend, volatility, interest rates, and crypto. If stocks trend up and volatility is calm, it goes on offense (3x tech/semis like TQQQ/SOXL/TECL/UPRO). If trend weakens or vol spikes, it hides in T‑bills/bonds/market‑neutral or shorts/vol hedges. Separate sleeves toggle emerging markets and, only when Bitcoin trends, a crypto basket. KMLM (managed futures) acts as a macro trend check to allow or block some tech/short‑vol trades.
An adaptive, rules-based strategy that goes leveraged into tech in uptrends and hedges to cash in downturns, plus EM and crypto sleeves for optional bets. Out-of-sample results show stronger downside protection and higher upside vs. the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.5% | 16.32% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 1 | |
| 20,209.78% | 336.27% | -3.04% | 1.21% | 3.93 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,030,978.03Regulatory Fees
$5,097.75
Total Slippage
$31,478.60
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 23, 2026
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, momentum and mean-reversion, volatility hedging, leveraged/inverse etfs, tech/semis tilt, bonds/rates timing, emerging markets, crypto sleeve
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 112 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Stocks
ABBV
ABBVIE INC.
Stocks
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
Stocks
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
Stocks
AMZN
Amazon.Com Inc
Stocks
ARBK
Argo Blockchain plc American Depositary Shares
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BITF
Bitfarms Ltd. Common Stock
Stocks
BITI
ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF
Stocks