Pareto's Portfolio (zoop edition PDBC -> PDI) (57,30,2012)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Daily risk-on/risk-off: panic -> T‑Bills; if bonds beat cash, hold the 2 strongest 3x equity index ETFs (TQQQ, UPRO, UDOW, TNA); otherwise hold PDI plus the stronger of TMF (3x long Treasuries) or TMV (3x short). High volatility.
Daily it follows a simple flow:
1) If market fear spikes (a volatility fund, UVXY, surges), park in cash‑like T‑Bills (BIL).
2) Else, if core bonds (BND) beat cash over ~3 months, buy the 2 strongest of: TQQQ=3x Nasdaq‑100, UPRO=3x S&P 500, UDOW=3x Dow, TNA=3x small caps.
3) Else, split between PDI (income‑focused bond/credit fund) and whichever trends better: TMF=3x long Treasuries or TMV=3x short Treasuries. Note: uses 3x ETFs; very volatile.
Disciplined, risk-managed strategy that shifts to cash on spikes and to trend bets otherwise. Out-of-sample Sharpe ~0.41 and Calmar ~0.19 offer positive risk-adjusted return and diversification, with capital protection during volatility vs the S&P.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 7, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, trend following, leveraged etfs, volatility filter, bonds & credit, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
PDI
PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TNA
Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UDOW
ProShares UltraPro Dow 30
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks