*P 2-3-25 🛡 // 016-HG-Simplified-EW-V2-LR Wolf // SHORT ONLY
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Short‑biased, daily strategy. Uses a 200‑day trend filter and a simple “hot/cold” gauge to fade overbought rallies with inverse stock funds (SQQQ/SPXS/UVXY). When no edge, it parks in T‑bills or rotates into bonds, the US dollar, or gold.
Step 1: Check the S&P 500’s long-term trend (above/below its 200‑day average).
Uptrend: If stocks look “too hot,” briefly bet against them (SQQQ/SPXS) or on volatility (UVXY). Otherwise sit in T‑bills (BIL).
Downtrend: If “too cold,” hide in short Treasuries (SHY/SHV/STIP). If not, fade big one‑day pops and rotate among inverse Nasdaq (SQQQ), bonds (TLT/TMV), the dollar (UUP/UDN), or gold (UGL). Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample edge: ~19.38% annualized vs 17.40% S&P, drawdown ~11.03% vs 18.76%, Sharpe ~1.09 vs 0.93, Calmar ~1.76. A disciplined, short-biased, trend-filtered strategy with cash/bond safety beats the S&P on risk-adjusted returns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | -0.66 | 0.11 | -0.34 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 612.12% | 14.68% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.9 | |
| 44,678.99% | 53.11% | 0.27% | 0.87% | 1.44 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,477,898.58Regulatory Fees
$11,571.30
Total Slippage
$77,105.84
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 27, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Short-biased tactical etfs, rsi mean-reversion, trend filter, volatility hedging, cash/t-bills heavy
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPXS
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
STIP
iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks