A high-risk market-timing strategy that buys stock dips, gets defensive when tech looks overheated, and otherwise follows the strongest trends across stocks, bonds, commodities, and more.

This strategy first checks if the stock market—especially big tech—looks too hot or too beaten down over the last 2 weeks. If tech looks overheated, it shifts toward defense: mostly everyday-essentials stocks (XLP) plus a small volatility bet (UVXY). If tech or the broad market has fallen hard, it “buys the dip” using leveraged stock funds, while still keeping some money in defensive staples. If neither extreme is happening, it puts 70% into the 4 strongest assets from a mixed menu of stocks, bonds, gold, commodities, the U.S. dollar, energy, and Brazil, based on roughly the last 150 trading days. The other 30% is a separate bond trade that bets on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds going up or down depending on their trend.

Out-of-sample annualized return 25.9% vs 20.3% for S&P, driven by disciplined trend-following and buy-the-dip with a defensive sleeve. Higher upside but larger drawdowns; Calmar ~0.82 signals efficient risk, a strong complement to core equity.