OG v1.0 3x SPY for the long run - from TQQQ For The Long Term Minimal | Dereck Nielsen, Pietros Maneos & Raekon v1.4 | 167.3%/34.4% DD from 28 Oct 2011
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rules-based rotation that rides S&P 500 uptrends with SPXL (3x) but flips to UVXY, SPXU, or TLT when markets look overheated, fearful, or in downtrends. Uses a 200‑day average and RSI (overbought/oversold) to switch. Very high risk due to leverage and volatility products.
First, check SPY vs its 200‑day average (a long‑term trend gauge). If above, it mostly holds SPXL (3x S&P 500). If tech (TQQQ) or SPY look overbought by RSI (0–100; high=ran up fast), it flips to UVXY (volatility). After sharp 5‑day drops it may short (SPXU) unless deeply oversold, then buys SPXL. If choppy, it parks in TLT (long Treasuries). If SPY is below its 200‑day, it rotates among UVXY, SPXU, TLT, and only buys SPXL on extreme oversold bounces.
Out-of-sample upside: ~52% annualized vs SPY ~21%; Calmar ~1.17. Bigger drawdowns (~45%), but potential for far stronger long-run growth in uptrends with built-in hedges vs the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 620.2% | 14.76% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.91 | |
| 16,809,892.38% | 131.4% | -1.63% | -2.25% | 1.78 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,680,999,237.56Regulatory Fees
$2,088,132.53
Total Slippage
$15,010,615.64
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 14, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged s&p 500, risk-on/risk-off, trend + mean reversion, volatility hedging, treasuries
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total