OG v1.0 3x SPY for the long run - from TQQQ For The Long Term Minimal | Dereck Nielsen, Pietros Maneos & Raekon v1.4 | 167.3%/34.4% DD from 28 Oct 2011
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Rides long S&P 500 uptrends with a 3x fund, but flips to volatility, short S&P 500, or Treasuries when markets look overheated or weak. Uses trend, overbought/oversold, and volatility cues to switch between offense and defense.
SPY=S&P 500; SPXL=3x bull S&P 500; SPXU=3x short S&P 500; UVXY=2x volatility; TLT=long Treasuries.
1) If SPY > 200‑day avg (uptrend): mostly hold SPXL; switch to UVXY when markets look “too hot” (very high RSI), to SPXU after sharp bounces, or to TLT when volatility jumps.
2) If SPY <= 200‑day avg: favor SPXU/UVXY/TLT; buy SPXL only on extreme oversold.
RSI=heat meter of recent moves; std dev=volatility; cum return=recent % change.
Out-of-sample: ~52% annualized return vs SPY ~21%, Calmar ~1.17. Levered trend-following that rides uptrends and hedges spikes, delivering much higher upside with disciplined risk—though downturns can show larger drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 | 0.83 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 15,693,588.79% | 129.82% | -6.26% | -2.73% | 1.77 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,569,368,879.37Regulatory Fees
$2,088,132.53
Total Slippage
$15,010,615.64
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 14, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged s&p 500, tactical trend/momentum, risk-on/risk-off, volatility hedge, market timing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total