OG v1.0 3x SPY for the long run - from TQQQ For The Long Term Minimal | Dereck Nielsen, Pietros Maneos & Raekon v1.4 | 167.3%/34.4% DD from 28 Oct 2011
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A highly aggressive, long-run strategy aiming for roughly 3x SPY by switching between SPXL, SPXU, UVXY, and TLT based on short-term momentum and price signals, with no fixed rebalancing schedule and a single-asset-at-a-time allocation. It emphasizes leverage, momentum, and hedging to pursue upside while attempting to cap drawdowns.
Plain-language description:
- Goal: aim for about 3x SPY over the long run using SPXL, while using hedges to limit big losses.
- How it decides what to hold: it uses a sequence of rule checks based on momentum and price signals.
- Key signals: short-term RSI (10-day) on proxied assets (notably TQQQ and SPXL), recent price behavior relative to moving averages, and very short-term returns (e.g., 5-day SPY return).
- Assets it may pick: SPXL (3x long S&P 500), SPXU (3x inverse S&P 500), UVXY (volatility-related ETF), TLT (long-dated Treasuries), SPY (baseline for signals). Sometimes a Nasdaq-group note appears in the logic, but the practical result is a single asset chosen at a time.
- How it rebalances: no fixed schedule; reallocation happens when a rule is triggered within the nested decision tests (rebalance-corridor-width exists in the settings but is effectively not used for regular rebalancing).
- Risk and leverage: the strategy uses leverage (3x) which amplifies gains and losses; volatility hedges (UVXY) and bonds (TLT) are used to mitigate drawdowns in stressed markets. The approach is best understood as a tactical, momentum-driven, single-asset-at-a-time tilt rather than a diversified long-only or regularly rebalanced portfolio.
Targeting far higher upside than SPY with 3x SPXL and hedges (UVXY/SPXU/TLT). OOS: ~52% annualized vs ~21% SPY; solid risk-adjusted metrics (Calmar ~1.16, Sharpe ~1.17). Higher upside, accept larger drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 | 0.83 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 15,693,588.79% | 129.82% | -6.26% | -2.73% | 1.77 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,569,368,879.37Regulatory Fees
$2,088,132.53
Total Slippage
$15,010,615.64
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 14, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged equity, momentum-based, hedging, tactical allocation, multi-asset
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total