A tactical, multi-asset overlay that uses momentum and volatility signals to tilt between leveraged equity bets (e.g., 3x tech/S&P ETFs) and defensive assets (gold, bonds, cash, USD). It seeks to ride trends, limit drawdown, and rebalance when signals shift, but involves high risk due to leverage and complex, conditional rules.

- What it tries to do: It’s a tactical, rules-based overlay that switches between risk-on equity bets and defensive positions based on momentum and volatility signals. - Where the money goes: The system looks at a basket of assets (broad market, tech, bonds, gold, currencies, commodities) and, using momentum screens, picks the top two or so assets to fund from a cash pool. It also has a separate block that builds a defensive/risk-off sleeve when signals warn of stress. - Signals used (in plain terms): • Momentum checks: Is the price of an asset above its recent trend indicator (roughly, its moving average)? Are momentum measures high enough (think “strength”)? If yes, it favors that asset. • Relative strength screens: It compares several assets to see which have fared best recently and tends to allocate to the leaders. • Volatility/risk signals: It watches volatility indicators (e.g., signals that fear is rising) and pivots toward safer assets (gold, short/shorter-duration bonds, cash proxies) when fear spikes. • Drawdown screens: It considers how much a market has fallen recently to avoid over-concentration in assets that are already stretched and to limit downside. - How it allocates: There is a baseline cash position and then weighted allocations to the chosen assets. The plan uses top-N selections and predefined weights to design the mix. The intent is to be overweight when markets are trending up with momentum, and to tilt defensively when signals suggest risk-off conditions. It uses levered ETFs (e.g., 3x tech or S&P exposure) to magnify moves in favorable periods, and it uses inverse and volatility hedges to dampen losses in downturns. - Rebalancing: It isn’t tied to a fixed calendar. Instead, rebalancing happens when the signal logic indicates a meaningful change in momentum/volatility, effectively when the rules trigger a new allocation decision. - What you should know about risk: Leveraged ETFs can magnify gains, but also magnify losses and can behave unpredictably during choppier markets. The strategy also includes hedges (e.g., gold, long-duration bonds, USD) to try to reduce drawdowns, but there is no guarantee of protection in all scenarios.

Out-of-sample, this trend-following, hedged strategy targets higher upside (≈33% vs 22% for the S&P) with Calmar ≈1.34. Dynamic risk controls add diversification; note drawdowns can be larger in stress.