OG 2x edition of v1.1 of Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie (No K-1)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Rules-based risk-on/risk-off plan: runs a toned-down HFEA (2x S&P + 3x long Treasuries) when rates fall; otherwise rotates among leveraged funds or hedges with USD/short ETFs; crash signals park it in T-Bills/SHY. Avoids K-1 funds.
It first checks for panic: if the market’s fear gauge (VIX) has been rising fast for ~2 months, it hides in short-term Treasuries (SHY).
If not, it asks “Are bonds beating cash?”
- Yes: take risk and rotate into a few 2x stock/tech funds and long Treasuries, buying recent dips.
- Bonds weak (rates rising): hold US dollar (USDU) plus either a short-stocks or short-long-bond hedge.
- Rates falling: run ~70% 2x S&P (SSO) and ~30% 3x long Treasuries (TMF), unless there’s a fresh plunge, then sit in T-Bills (BIL).
Out-of-sample annualized return ~23.64% vs S&P 22.26%, with a rules-based rate-regime approach that captures upside while shifting to cash/hedges during volatility spikes. Higher long-run upside, but drawdowns can be larger (~42%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.9 | 0.27 | 0.52 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 355.73% | 13.22% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.81 | |
| 11,392.22% | 47.46% | -0.7% | -0.46% | 1.45 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,149,221.88Regulatory Fees
$6,249.88
Total Slippage
$37,302.04
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 23, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, volatility filter, rates regime, mean reversion, crash protection, no k-1
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DDM
ProShares Ultra Dow30
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
ROM
ProShares Ultra Technology
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks