OG 2x edition of v1.1 of Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie (No K-1)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rules-based, “safer HFEA” that buys dips in 2x stock ETFs in normal times, runs 70/30 2x stocks/3x Treasuries when rates fall, and retreats to T‑bills, long USD, or inverse hedges during crashes or rising‑rate regimes. Avoids K‑1 ETFs.
1) If volatility spikes (VIXM’s RSI—a 0–100 “heat meter” of recent moves—>~70), park in short‑term Treasuries (SHY). 2) Else, if bonds beat cash over 60 days, buy the 3 most sold‑off 2x stock funds (Nasdaq/S&P/Tech/Semis/Dow) or TLT. 3) Else, if long bonds lag cash (rising rates), hold US dollar (USDU) + a hedge (SDS or TBF). 4) Else (falling rates), run 70% SSO + 30% TMF unless a fresh >5% drop, then sit in BIL ~1 month.
Out-of-sample: 23.64% annualized return vs SPY’s 22.26%, with crash hedges and regime-switching to protect in volatility. Drawdowns can be larger in downturns, but hedges aim to limit losses.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.9 | 0.27 | 0.52 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 365.47% | 13.46% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.82 | |
| 11,427.01% | 47.67% | -2.23% | -3.51% | 1.46 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,152,700.82Regulatory Fees
$6,174.01
Total Slippage
$36,801.53
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 23, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, regime-switching, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, volatility filter, rates-aware, dollar hedge, no k-1
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DDM
ProShares Ultra Dow30
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
ROM
ProShares Ultra Technology
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks