OG 2x edition of v1.1 of Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie (No K-1)
Today’s Change (Apr 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Rules-based risk-on/risk-off plan: runs a toned-down HFEA (2x S&P + 3x long Treasuries) when rates fall; otherwise rotates among leveraged funds or hedges with USD/short ETFs; crash signals park it in T-Bills/SHY. Avoids K-1 funds.
It first checks for panic: if the market’s fear gauge (VIX) has been rising fast for ~2 months, it hides in short-term Treasuries (SHY).
If not, it asks “Are bonds beating cash?”
- Yes: take risk and rotate into a few 2x stock/tech funds and long Treasuries, buying recent dips.
- Bonds weak (rates rising): hold US dollar (USDU) plus either a short-stocks or short-long-bond hedge.
- Rates falling: run ~70% 2x S&P (SSO) and ~30% 3x long Treasuries (TMF), unless there’s a fresh plunge, then sit in T-Bills (BIL).
Out-of-sample: 23.64% vs S&P 22.26%. A rules-based barbell (levered stocks + long Treasuries) that adapts to rate regimes with crash protection—no K‑1s. Higher upside with disciplined risk management vs the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.9 | 0.27 | 0.52 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 346.78% | 12.98% | -4.19% | -3.74% | 0.79 | |
| 11,493.76% | 47.35% | -0.07% | -5.4% | 1.45 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,159,376.34Regulatory Fees
$6,289.21
Total Slippage
$37,533.00
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 23, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, volatility filter, rates regime, mean reversion, crash protection, no k-1
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DDM
ProShares Ultra Dow30
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
ROM
ProShares Ultra Technology
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks