OG 2x edition of v1.1 of Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie (No K-1)
Today’s Change (Aug 23, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Rules-based risk-on/risk-off plan: runs a toned-down HFEA (2x S&P + 3x long Treasuries) when rates fall; otherwise rotates among leveraged funds or hedges with USD/short ETFs; crash signals park it in T-Bills/SHY. Avoids K-1 funds.
It first checks for panic: if the market’s fear gauge (VIX) has been rising fast for ~2 months, it hides in short-term Treasuries (SHY).
If not, it asks “Are bonds beating cash?”
- Yes: take risk and rotate into a few 2x stock/tech funds and long Treasuries, buying recent dips.
- Bonds weak (rates rising): hold US dollar (USDU) plus either a short-stocks or short-long-bond hedge.
- Rates falling: run ~70% 2x S&P (SSO) and ~30% 3x long Treasuries (TMF), unless there’s a fresh plunge, then sit in T-Bills (BIL).
Regime-aware, crash-protected strategy: shifts to cash/hedges in volatile/rising-rate markets; leverage only when favorable. OOS: ~19% annualized return, Sharpe 0.71, Calmar 0.45, max drawdown 42% vs SPY 18.8%. No K-1s, diversification.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.29 | 0.87 | 0.26 | 0.51 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 423% | 13.98% | 2.33% | 3.36% | 0.85 | |
| 10,883.62% | 45% | -2.93% | 6.36% | 1.41 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,098,362.39Regulatory Fees
$5,416.79
Total Slippage
$41,151.38
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 23, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, volatility filter, rates regime, mean reversion, crash protection, no k-1
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DDM
ProShares Ultra Dow30
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
ROM
ProShares Ultra Technology
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks