NVDA vs QQQ + KMLM (with shorting)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A rules-based timer for NVIDIA: take risk only when NVDA clearly lags or leads tech (QQQ). Use a simple “heat” check vs KMLM to choose cash (BIL), NVDA, or 2× NVDA (NVDX). Highly concentrated; leveraged only when momentum is strongest.
Each day: compare NVIDIA (NVDA) vs QQQ over 1, 2, and 3 days.
- If NVDA lagged on all 3: bet on a bounce → buy NVDA; if NVDA’s 10‑day RSI (a 0–100 “heat” score of recent up vs down days) beats KMLM’s (a trend‑following futures fund, used as a macro gauge), use NVDX (~2× NVDA).
- If NVDA beat QQQ on all 3: ride the trend only if NVDA’s RSI > KMLM’s → buy NVDX, else hold BIL (T‑bills).
- Mixed signals → BIL.
Out-of-sample return ~17.8% p.a. vs S&P ~17.2%, with disciplined, signals-based leverage on NVDA momentum. Captures AI/tech upswings and uses cash hedges during uncertainty. Higher drawdown risk, so best for risk-tolerant, alpha-seeking investors.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.79 | 2.07 | 0.28 | 0.53 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65.31% | 23.77% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 1.44 | |
| 1,146.26% | 191.61% | -3.25% | -15.29% | 2.05 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$124,625.76Regulatory Fees
$1,212.88
Total Slippage
$7,180.62
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 26, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Single-stock timing, momentum & mean reversion, leveraged etf, risk-on/risk-off, rules-based, tactical allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total