NOVA | IBIT RSI TMF WGMI checks
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Hold Bitcoin; only add Bitcoin miners when treasury yields spike, using a simple oversold check to time miner buys; otherwise stay with Bitcoin.
Overview for a layperson: you mostly own Bitcoin. When U.S. government debt yields rise recently (a sign that interest rates are moving up), the strategy looks to add miners exposure as a supplementary bet. It does not blindly chase miners; it uses simple checks to pick a dip buying opportunity and to avoid overcommitting when bond markets look weak. Concretely:
- Base position: hold Bitcoin (BTC).
- Trigger to add miners: when treasury yields have recently spiked, you try to buy miners as well.
- Which miners? The plan considers two miner-related ETFs: WGMI (Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF) and BLOK (Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF).
- How a dip is chosen: among the two miner options, the strategy prefers the one with the better recent downside protection (smaller max drawdown over a window) and then buys it if other conditions agree.
- Supporting signal (oversold check): the plan watches a bitcoin-related ETF (IBIT) using a short-term momentum proxy. If the ETF looks oversold (a short-term indicator below a threshold, e.g., RSI under 32), that strengthens the case to add miners on the dip.
- Bond market check (risk gate): since stubbornly higher long-dated yields can imply more risk-on pressure, the strategy uses TMF (a long-duration Treasury ETF) as a gauge. If TMF hasn’t shown undesirable drawdown or the system’s other conditions are met, it may proceed; otherwise it may avoid adding miners.
- Optional safety sleeve: there’s a small potential allocation to ultra-safe short-term Treasuries (BIL) as a cushion if conditions look uncertain.
- Rebalancing: the plan rebalances daily, keeping BTC as the core, and adding miners only when the trigger conditions are satisfied.
- What you’re not getting: this is not a guaranteed Bitcoin booster; miners are volatile, can underperform BTC, and crypto markets can swing sharply on news, regulation, or macro data.
- Tickers explained below to help you recognize what you’d be buying.
- In short: if rates spike, buy BTC and a miner ETF on a dip; if rates don’t spike, stay with BTC only; rebalance daily.
Out-of-sample: ~25.1% annual return vs SPY 20.4%, positive alpha, and beta ~0.75. Adds miners for rate-driven upside with daily rebalancing and risk controls. Higher max drawdown but potential for stronger gains when yields rise.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | 0.84 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.03% | 17.54% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 1.08 | |
| 291.29% | 89.92% | 13.17% | 0.15% | 1.83 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$39,129.07Regulatory Fees
$55.02
Total Slippage
$340.31
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 10, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Cryptocurrency, bitcoin miners, macro-driven timing, rule-based, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total