NOVA | hwrdr - Asian Currency Crisis 2.0 | 2x Short Yen | BIL > BND & Strong $
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Rotates among three ideas using 60‑day trends: if bonds lag T‑Bills (rates up), either short the yen 2x (YCS) when the dollar trends up or hold gold (GLD) if it doesn’t. If bonds beat T‑Bills (rates down), hold rate‑hedged investment‑grade credit (IGHG).
Look back 60 days. If broad bonds (BND) did worse than T‑Bills (BIL), rates likely rose. Then check the US dollar: if the dollar ETF (UUP) is above its 60‑day average (a simple trend), buy YCS (2x short yen); otherwise buy GLD (gold). If bonds beat T‑Bills (rates fell), buy IGHG (rate‑hedged investment‑grade corporate bonds).
Macro-rotation strategy delivers superior out-of-sample risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ~1.16 vs ~1.00 SPX), far lower drawdowns (8.4% vs 18.8%), and low beta (~0.12). Positive out-of-sample alpha means upside with less market risk than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 373.39% | 13.44% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.82 | |
| 438.83% | 14.64% | -0.76% | 4.53% | 1.12 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$53,882.98Regulatory Fees
$163.96
Total Slippage
$1,050.84
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 22, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical macro rotation, currencies (usd/jpy), gold, investment-grade credit, trend following, leveraged etf, risk-managed
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total