Newish Short End Bond Symphony
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily macro-rotation. It reads short-term bonds to infer the rate regime, then uses momentum and volatility to choose tech-heavy risk-on, defensive/hedged, or inflation/stagflation baskets, with selective use of leveraged/inverse ETFs.
1) Read short‑term Treasuries (SHY). A high RSI (0–100 “strength” gauge) means falling rates; low/neutral means not.
2) Compare momentum (recent avg returns): market vs Utilities/Staples, commodities vs real estate, and the VIX “fear” curve.
3) Rotate daily into: a) risk‑on tech/growth (QQQ/SMH; sometimes 2x QLD/RXL), b) defensive/hedged mixes (XLP/XLV/PFF plus inverse/vol ETFs), or c) inflation/stagflation baskets (energy/metals, short long‑bonds via TBT/TMV, gold/miners, YCS). It also buys semis/tech after oversold “capitulation.”
Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers ~32.35% annualized return vs SPY's ~17.41%, Sharpe ~1.91 vs ~0.99, Calmar ~5.98, and max drawdown ~5.41% vs ~18.76%; beta ~0.48—stronger risk-adjusted upside with far less downside.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.24 | 0.4 | 0.17 | 0.42 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 403.29% | 13.68% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.84 | |
| 3,500.2% | 32.89% | 2.73% | -3.77% | 1.79 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$360,019.65Regulatory Fees
$1,910.99
Total Slippage
$12,032.58
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 23, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Macro regime rotation,rates & inflation,multi-asset etfs,momentum & rsi,volatility signals,leveraged/inverse,daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 52 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks
EEV
ProShares Trust UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GDXJ
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IAI
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
Stocks