Newish Short End Bond Symphony
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
It first reads short‑term Treasury bonds to infer if interest rates are falling, rising, or normal. Then it checks risk and inflation/fear gauges to choose between growth/tech, defensives and Treasuries, or hedges/shorts and commodities, rebalanced daily.
1) Read a short-term “heat meter” (RSI) on SHY, a 1–3 yr U.S. Treasury bond fund. Hot = bond prices up (rates falling), cold = prices down (rates rising), else neutral.
2) Then compare recent performance of stocks vs utilities, the fear index curve, real estate vs commodities, and defensives vs a rising‑rates proxy.
3) Pick a basket: risk‑on growth (NASDAQ/semis), defensives and Treasuries, or hedges/shorts and commodities. Rebalanced daily; uses leveraged funds.
Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers 32.35% annualized return with only 5.41% max drawdown and a 1.91 Sharpe, far surpassing the S&P’s ~17.41% return and ~18.76% drawdown (Sharpe ~1.0). Beta ~0.48 means gentler market moves.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.24 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.42 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 392.76% | 13.45% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 3,388.92% | 32.45% | -3.23% | -5.33% | 1.78 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$348,891.56Regulatory Fees
$1,911.38
Total Slippage
$12,034.10
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 23, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Macro regime, risk-on/risk-off, momentum, multi-asset, etfs, leveraged/inverse, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 52 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks
EEV
ProShares Trust UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GDXJ
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IAI
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
Stocks