Newish Short End Bond Symphony
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily-tuned, regime-aware strategy that uses short-end bond behavior as a rate signal and momentum checks to switch between risk-on equity bets and hedges, with a cash-equal backbone and a layered set of ETFs.
A daily-rebalanced, rule-based system that first infers a rate-regime from short-end bond behavior, then gauges risk appetite with momentum/momentum-like tests and RSI-style checks on broad market signals. It partitions decisions into major modes: (1) Bullish Recovery (long risk) using growth/tech and gold, (2) Bearish Inflationary Selloff with hedges and some defensive assets, and (3) Market Topping/VIX-testing (risk-off hedges). Each mode has explicit asset groups with weights (often cash-equal blocks) and a set of assets (ETFs) selected to exploit the expected regime. The core logic relies on moving-average returns over windows (5–25 days), RSI-type momentum thresholds, and comparisons against benchmarks like SPY/QQQ. If a test passes, it allocates to the corresponding group; if not, it moves to the next decision node. Risks include complexity, high turnover, levered exposures, and dependency on the accuracy of regime signals.
Choose this strategy for higher risk-adjusted gains and far milder drawdowns vs the S&P 500. Out-of-sample: ~32% annualized returns, Sharpe ~1.9, Calmar ~6, beta ~0.48, plus hedges and regime-aware shifts for resilience.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.24 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.42 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 392.76% | 13.45% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 3,388.92% | 32.45% | -3.23% | -5.33% | 1.78 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$348,891.56Regulatory Fees
$1,911.38
Total Slippage
$12,034.10
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 23, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Macro, tactical asset allocation, risk-management, rate-regime proxy, leveraged/inverse etfs, multi-asset overlays
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 52 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks
EEV
ProShares Trust UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GDXJ
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IAI
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
Stocks