Newish Short End Bond Symphony
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A fast-moving strategy that reads short-term bond behavior to judge the rate environment, then switches among growth stocks, defensive assets, commodities, and bearish hedges based on market mood.
This strategy uses very short-term U.S. government bonds as a signal for the interest-rate climate.
If that signal suggests rates are falling, it asks: are investors acting confident or defensive? It then buys growth areas like tech/healthcare, safer assets like long-term Treasuries, or defensive hedges.
If the signal suggests rising-rate or inflation stress, it shifts toward commodities, gold-related assets, bearish funds, or selective rebound trades.
If conditions look normal, it holds a simpler mix of tech and financial stocks.
Dynamic regime-switching strategy that beats the S&P in out-of-sample tests: about 24% annualized return vs ~17%, Sharpe ~1.52 vs ~1.04, and lower drawdown (~16.6% vs 18.8%). Daily rebalancing across growth, defensives, commodities and hedges.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.23 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.42 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 472.32% | 14.09% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.87 | |
| 3,945.27% | 32.25% | -0.05% | 1.93% | 1.77 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$404,527.36Regulatory Fees
$1,809.94
Total Slippage
$14,146.81
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 23, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, regime switching, macro, sector rotation, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, inflation hedge, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 52 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks
EEV
ProShares Trust UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GDXJ
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IAI
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
Stocks