When the market trend is up, own the two strongest recent performers (mainly big tech/growth) if they pass simple health checks; otherwise park that slice in defensive ETFs. If the market trend is down, hold short-term Treasuries/cash-like funds.

1) Check the broad market: if the S&P 500 trend is up (its recent average price is above its longer average), we take risk; if not, we sit in cash-like Treasuries (SHY, JPST, BIL). 2) In “risk-on,” rank a list of familiar big names (Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, etc.) and a few ETFs by their last 20 trading days. Buy the top 2, split 50/50. 3) Each pick must look healthy: a short-term strength gauge (RSI) should be in a normal range (not too cold or too hot), and its short-term average price should be above its medium-term average. If a pick fails, that half goes to a defensive mix: SCHD 30%, JPST 40%, BIL 30%. Rebalanced daily.

Out-of-sample, this strategy targets higher upside than the S&P 500: ~35% annualized vs ~20%, with disciplined momentum and a risk-off shield in downturns and daily rebalancing. Strong compounding, but higher drawdowns (13% vs 5%).