Monthly JNK canary
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Keeps 30% in a defensive trio (dollar, gold, short Treasuries). The other 70% toggles among 2x US stocks, 3x long Treasuries, a volatility hedge, or the safety mix, guided by junk-bonds-vs-cash and simple “hot/cold” stock signals.
- 30% always split across dollar (UUP), gold (GLD), and short-term Treasuries (SHY).
- The other 70% shifts monthly: if stocks look very “hot” short-term (RSI high), hold a volatility hedge (UVXY). Else if junk bonds (JNK) beat cash (BIL) over 1 month, buy 2x S&P 500 (SSO). Else if long bonds (TLT) rose over 3 months, buy 3x Treasuries (TMF). Else if stocks look “washed out” (RSI low), buy SSO. Otherwise, use the safety mix.
Out-of-sample edge: ~36% annualized return vs ~23% for the S&P; Sharpe ~1.61 vs ~1.42; drawdown ~12% vs ~19%. A 30% defensive core plus tactical signals delivers higher, steadier growth with less risk than the S&P.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 6, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation,risk-on/risk-off,momentum,trend,leveraged etfs,volatility hedge,bonds,gold,us dollar
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
JNK
State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks