Monthly JNK canary
Today’s Change (Apr 19, 2026)
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About
Monthly, rules-based plan: keep 30% in a safety mix (dollar, gold, short Treasuries). Move the other 70% among 2x S&P 500, 3x long Treasuries, a volatility spike hedge, or the same safety mix based on simple “hot/cold” and trend checks (JNK vs BIL; SPY; TLT).
Every month: 30% stays split evenly in a safety basket—UUP (US dollar), GLD (gold), SHY (short‑term Treasuries).
For the other 70%:
- If SPY looks very “hot” (a 14‑day momentum speedometer is high), buy UVXY (jumps when fear spikes).
- Else if junk bonds (JNK) beat cash‑like bills (BIL) over 1 month, buy SSO (2x S&P 500).
- Else if long Treasuries (TLT) trend up over 3 months, buy TMF (3x Treasuries).
- Else if SPY looks very “cold,” buy SSO; otherwise use the safety basket.
Out-of-sample strength: ~36% annualized return vs ~23% S&P; Sharpe ~1.61 vs ~1.42; Calmar ~3.0; max drawdown ~12% vs ~18.8%. A 30% safety sleeve plus tactical leveraged bets delivers higher returns with lower risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 6, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation,risk-on/risk-off,momentum,contrarian,leveraged etfs,volatility hedge,bonds,gold,us dollar
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
JNK
State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks