A monthly, rule-based asset mix that gates risk-taking with a 30% safety cushion (UUP, GLD, SHY) and a 70% risk tilt guided by JNK canary signals, SPY momentum (RSI), and bond-trend checks. Uses levered ETFs (SSO, UVXY, TMF) for amplified exposure under favorable momentum, with safety hedges when signals warn of risk.

Plain-language description of the logic and signals: - The portfolio is split into two parts: Safety (about 30%) and Risk (about 70%). Safety holdings go to a small, mixed basket designed to hold up in rough markets: UUP (dollar exposure), GLD (gold), and SHY (short-term Treasuries). This is the ballast. - The rest of the portfolio (the 70% risk side) is steered toward riskier assets when the signals say the markets look good, and hedged or reduced when signals warn of trouble. - The key “canary” signal is the JNK ETF (high-yield bonds). If JNK’s performance over the last 30 days beats a safe benchmark (BIL, a short-term Treasury ETF), the system leans into risk assets (notably SSO, which is a levered bet on the S&P 500). If JNK underperforms, the system either stays in safety or uses other cues to adjust. - A separate signal looks at SPY’s momentum: if SPY’s 14-day RSI is very high (about 75 or more), the strategy adds UVXY (volatility exposure) as a hedge when market turbulence is possible. If SPY is oversold (RSI around 27), the system may tilt toward risk assets again, seeking a rebound. - There’s also a momentum/trend check for longer-term bonds: TMF (levered long-duration Treasuries) versus TLT (long Treasuries) using a 90-day look-back. If this check supports higher bond risk-taking, the risk tilt can be adjusted accordingly. - A 30-day SSO vs BIL comparison is used to time the degree of equity exposure, adding a refined momentum filter to when the levered equity exposure should be used. - The overall approach is executed daily in the sense that signals are recalculated every day, but the actual trades are aligned with a monthly rebalancing cadence to avoid frequent churn. The intention is to capture favorable market regimes while maintaining a safety core to shield against drawdowns. The underlying ETFs represent a mix of equities (SSO), credit (JNK), volatility (UVXY), and safety assets (UUP, GLD, SHY, BIL, TMF, TLT). Disclaimer: levered ETFs (SSO, UVXY, TMF) magnify both gains and losses and require careful risk management and cost considerations.

Out-of-sample performance shows the strategy delivers stronger risk-adjusted gains than the S&P: ~36% annualized return vs ~23% SPY, ~12% max drawdown vs ~19%, Sharpe ~1.61 vs ~1.42, Calmar ~3.0. Higher upside, lower risk through risk-managed, signal-driven allocation.