Momentum Mean Reversion LETFs with Black Swan Catcher | 523.7% RR | 28.8% DD (Jan 2013 - Current)| DJKeyhole
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Multi-layer LETF strategy that blends momentum/mean-reversion signals with a Black-Swan hedge approach, dynamically rotating between leveraged bets (like TQQQ, SOXL, SPXL) and volatility/defensive hedges (UVXY, SQQQ, SPXS, GLD, UUP) across a broad asset universe; aims for strong upside with risk controls, evaluated via RSI, cumulative/moving returns, and relative strength rules. Heavy reliance on levered ETFs and complex conditional logic makes it powerful but high-risk and execution-sensitive.
This strategy constantly scans many ETFs to decide where to invest most right now. It primarily bets on leveraged tech/big‑cap themes (like TQQQ, TECL, SOXL, SPXL, UPRO) when momentum looks strong, but it can flip into hedges (UVXY, SQQQ) or defensive assets (GLD, UUP, TLT, AGG, DB-related funds, etc.) when volatility or pullbacks spike. The decision path uses several layers of rules: (1) momentum indicators (RSI) on various lookbacks to gauge whether a stock or ETF is overbought/oversold or trending. (2) short- to mid-term performance checks (cumulative returns, moving-average performance) to compare assets against benchmarks like SPY or SPXU. (3) relative strength comparisons to pick the best subsets within a group (e.g., top/ bottom performers over a window). (4) a “Black Swan Catcher” component that pivots into hedges if volatility surges (via UVXY or inverse levers) to help limit big losses. The structure is hierarchical and rule‑driven, with nested if-else decisions that select a sub-portfolio and apply a weight, often fully allocating to the chosen assets. No fixed periodic rebalance is used; changes occur when the signals flip, effectively making the strategy respond to market regime shifts in real time. The result is a dynamic blend of aggressive upside capture during trends and defensive hedges during spikes, all underpinned by momentum and mean-reversion logic across a broad LETF ecosystem. Although potent, this approach is highly complex and depends on timely execution and the behavior of leveraged ETFs, which can be unreliable over long holding periods due to decay and compounding effects. The setup also references a wide array of assets (e.g., TQQQ, TECL, SOXL, UPRO, SPXL, UVXY, SQQQ, SPXS, SPXU, GLD, UUP, TLT, AGG, DBC, INDL, BRZU, MIDU, KORU, etc.), indicating broad sector/region coverage beyond just the most well-known tickers. If you want KMLM specifically analyzed within this framework, I didn’t find it in the provided rules, so I can tailor instructions once you confirm its intended role.
Out-of-sample: ~52% annualized return vs SPY ~24%; Calmar ~1.04; Sharpe ~0.94. Dynamic leverage plus volatility hedges seek big upside while controlling tail risk—though drawdowns can be larger than the S&P.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 11, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 24%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leverage etfs, momentum, mean reversion, risk management, volatility hedging, multi-asset
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 44 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BRZU
Direxion Daily MSCI Brazil Bull 2X ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DIG
ProShares Ultra Energy
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
Stocks
EPI
WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF
Stocks