A daily, rule-based, trend-following portfolio that shifts between a 100% stock allocation (VTI, VEA, VWO, AVUV, AVDV) when SPY is above its 50-day average, and a 30% stock / 70% bond mix (VGSH, SPTI) when SPY is below that average. It aims for growth in strong markets and risk reduction in weak markets by using a fixed set of ETFs with specified weights.

- The system looks at SPY (a broad US stock market ETF) and compares its current price to the 50-day average price of SPY. If the current price is higher than the 50-day average (an upward trend), the portfolio allocates 100% to a stock-heavy mix of five ETFs with the following weights: VTI 42%, VEA 24%, VWO 12%, AVUV 14%, AVDV 8%. - If the current price is not higher than the 50-day average (market weakness), the portfolio reduces equity exposure to 30% by assigning 6% to each of the same five equity ETFs (VTI, VEA, VWO, AVUV, AVDV) and allocates the remaining 70% to bond ETFs: VGSH 35% (short-term US Treasuries) and SPTI 35% (intermediate-term Treasuries). - The portfolio rebalances every day to these target weights, so the exact allocations can shift daily. - The equity ETFs cover a broad spectrum: VTI (US total stock market), VEA (developed markets outside US), VWO (emerging markets), AVUV (US small-cap value), AVDV (international small-cap value). The bond ETFs provide liquidity and risk reduction: VGSH focuses on short-duration Treasuries; SPTI focuses on intermediate-duration Treasuries. - The goal is to capture upside when markets look strong (full stock exposure) and to protect against downside when signals weaken (bond-heavy allocation while still retaining some equity exposure). - This is a straightforward, rule-based approach with daily adjustments, so expect higher turnover and consideration of trading costs and tax effects in taxable accounts.

An out-of-sample edge: higher risk-adjusted returns, tighter risk, and stronger growth vs the S&P. Sharpe 3.06 vs 2.68; annualized return ~37% vs ~35%; max drawdown ~3.5% vs 5.1%; Calmar ~10.6; beta ~0.83.